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精英翻譯出自 http://iservice.ltn.com.tw/Service/english

◎魏國金

Scientists have used Ebola disease spread patterns and airline traffic data to predict a 75 percent chance the virus could be imported to France by October 24, and a 50 percent chance it could hit Britain by that date.

科學家利用伊波拉疫病的擴散模式與航空公司的運輸資料預測出，該病毒有75％的機率恐於10月24日前入境法國，而屆時登陸英國的機率則為50％。

Those numbers are based on air traffic remaining at full capacity. Assuming an 80 percent reduction in travel to reflect that many airlines are halting flights to affected regions, France’s risk is still 25 percent, and Britain’s is 15 percent.

這些數據是以空中交通仍維持滿載的情況做出的推論。假設旅遊縮減80％，以反映許多航空公司停飛疫區的現狀，法國的風險仍達25％，而英國為15％。

"It’s really a lottery," said Derek Gatherer of Britain’s Lancaster University, an expert in viruses who has been tracking the epidemic - the worst Ebola outbreak in history.

「這真的是看運氣，」英國蘭開斯特大學的加瑟勒說，他是追蹤這波史上最嚴重伊波拉大流行的病毒專家。

The deadly epidemic has killed more than 3,400 people since it began in West Africa in March and has now started to spread faster, infecting almost 7,200 people so far.