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Move Over, China--India Set to Take Center Stage印度能否成為下一個中國？

精英翻譯社轉自http://paper.udn.com/udnpaper/POH0059/288756/web/

China may be poised to displace the United States as the world's largest economy in 2023, but it will be looking over its shoulder. According to a British-based think tank, India will be top dog by 2048.

中國或許已準備好要在 2023 年取代美國，成為全球最大經濟體，但卻必須隨時保持警覺。根據英國智庫指出，印度將在 2048 年之前登上世界第一的寶座。

There are numerous factors pointing toward India's rise. Firstly, as a country that imports 80 percent of its oil, India has reaped the rewards of a recent drop in oil prices. Knock-on effects include a narrowing of the current account deficit (though this admittedly fell short of a predicted surplus). There has also been a boost to GDP, with India posting growth of 7.5 percent in 2015 according to World Bank data. The figure is set to rise to 7.9 percent in 2016 in comparison to a drop to 7 percent for China. Inflation has also plummeted after remaining at over 10 percent for years.

許多因素都指向印度的崛起。首先，身為一個八成的石油都從國外進口的國家，印度已從近來下跌的油價獲得好處。連鎖效應包括經常帳赤字減少（儘管此結果無可否認地遜於先前預測的盈餘）。國內生產毛額也提升了，根據世界銀行的資料，印度在 2015 年的成長率達 7.5%。此數字預計在 2016 年攀升到 7.9%，相比之下，中國的成長率將下滑至 7%。印度多年來始終維持在 10% 以上的通膨率也急遽下降。

India also wields a demographic trump card. With fertility rates in decline in China, India is projected to match China's population of 1.4 billion by 2035. More telling is that the Indian population is much younger. Half of the country is currently under 25 years old, and the working population will increase through 2030, while China's is already decreasing.

印度還握有人口王牌。隨著中國的生育率下滑，印度將在 2035 年之前追上中國的 14 億人口。更重要的是印度人口相對年輕得多。目前印度有一半的人未滿 25 歲，就業人口將一路增加至 2030 年，然而中國的就業人口卻已開始減少。